AGP Executive Report

Mali Mining Watch: Barrick’s Loulo-Gounkoto gold complex is slowly coming back after its 2025 shutdown, with attributable output rising to 152,000 ounces in H1 2026 (up from 64,000 in Q1 to 88,000 in Q2), though still far below 2024 levels. Security & Finance: A UN report says a roughly $50m hostage ransom paid in late 2025 helped bankroll Al-Qaeda-linked expansion across West Africa, with most funds going to JNIM. Sahel Energy & Industry: Mali reaffirmed support for Morocco’s plan to link landlocked Sahel states to the Atlantic via ports, roads and rail—an infrastructure push with clear trade and logistics implications. Regional Trade & Diplomacy: Guinea confirmed it will attend the Russia-Africa summit in Moscow in October, signaling deeper ties beyond ceremony, including logistics and mineral exploration. Critical Minerals Pressure: Coverage on lithium in the Sahel highlights how expanding extraction is getting entangled with conflict, insurgent activity and cross-border smuggling—especially across Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso.

Sahel Trade & Industry: Mali reaffirmed support for Morocco’s plan to link landlocked Sahel states to the Atlantic via ports, roads and rail, with gradual implementation flagged after earlier ministerial talks—an effort aimed at turning logistics into economic leverage. Mining & Security Economics: A new report argues Sahel insurgencies are increasingly sustained by illicit economies, including levies on communities and smuggling routes, with gold mining in Mali and Burkina Faso feeding parallel funding networks. Energy Infrastructure: Niger signed a $1.9bn deal to build a 100,000-bpd refinery and petrochemical complex in Dosso under a build-operate-transfer model, targeting a major jump in domestic refining capacity over the next three years. Critical Minerals Outlook: India’s KABIL says lithium production in Argentina is now expected in 4–5 years, while its Mali lithium project remains on hold due to socio-political instability. Regional Integration Push: SADC leaders meet in Durban under a theme focused on industrialisation through infrastructure, agricultural transformation and critical minerals—aiming to reshape the region’s growth model.

West Africa Refining Push: Niger has signed a $1.9bn deal with Zimar Group and High Tech to build a 100,000-bpd refinery and petrochemical complex in Dosso under a build-operate-transfer model, with construction set for three years and a 13-year operating period before transfer to the state—an upgrade from the 20,000-bpd Zinder refinery that could reshape regional fuel supply and jobs. Sahel Security & Finance: UN experts say a reported $50m ransom paid in late 2025 for a Mali hostage helped fund al-Qaeda-linked militants’ advances across West Africa, with money largely redirected to Sahel fighters and some reaching affiliates. Mining, Conflict, and Lithium: New reporting highlights how the Sahel’s expanding lithium trade is entangled with insurgent activity and cross-border smuggling, pointing to weak governance as the key enabler—an issue directly tied to Mali’s critical-mineral ambitions. Regional Diplomacy: Guinea confirmed it will attend the October Russia-Africa summit in Moscow, signaling deeper ties beyond ceremony into logistics and mineral-linked cooperation.

Sahel Security & Terror Financing: UN experts say an estimated $50m ransom paid in late 2025 to free a Mali hostage helped fund al-Qaeda-linked militants’ West Africa offensive, with most money flowing to fighters in the Sahel and some to al-Qaeda in Yemen and its core leadership. Regional Diplomacy: AES (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) summoned Nigeria’s chargé d’affaires in Ouagadougou to protest President Tinubu’s remarks blaming the three states for Nigeria’s insecurity, as violence and economic strain deepen. Mining & Critical Minerals: A new report warns that lithium extraction across the Sahel is increasingly entangled with conflict, insurgent activity, and cross-border smuggling—enabled by weak governance. Energy & Industry: Niger signed a $1.9bn deal to build a 100,000-bpd refinery and petrochemical complex in Dosso under a build-operate-transfer model, aiming to expand refining capacity and create jobs. Infrastructure & Trade Integration: Egypt and Libya agreed to organize an industrial integration exhibition in Benghazi (first edition targeted for April 2027), with a focus on sectors like building materials, food, chemicals, engineering, textiles, and plastics. Tech for Makers: Orange Pi boards are gaining traction as home-server alternatives, but software support still lags behind the hardware. Hydrogen R&D: Researchers are testing “stimulated geologic hydrogen,” using electrical pulses to fracture iron-rich rock and generate hydrogen on demand.

Energy & Industry Deal: Niger has signed a $1.9bn build-operate-transfer deal to develop a 100,000-bpd refinery and petrochemical complex in Dosso, aiming to multiply refining capacity and build regional supply links. Mining & Security: A new report warns that the Sahel’s lithium boom is increasingly entangled with armed groups and smuggling, with weak governance helping militants profit from the mineral rush. Regional Resource Integration: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso (AES) agreed on a common mechanism for managing energy and mining, including grid interconnection, pooled fuel logistics, and longer-term refining plans. Security & Finance: UN experts say a reported $50m ransom paid for a Mali hostage in late 2025 helped fund al-Qaeda-linked advances across West Africa, with money largely redirected to Sahel fighters. Mining Investment Signals: Rabotec targets becoming a gold mine owner/operator within five years, with a West Africa portfolio that includes Mali.

Sahel Resource Push: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso (AES) agreed to set up a common mechanism for energy and mining management, aiming to improve reliable power, speed up grid links, pool fuel storage/transport, and boost local mining production. Security & Financing Watch: UN experts say a reported $50m ransom paid in late 2025 for a Mali hostage helped fund al-Qaeda-linked militants’ advances across West Africa, with most money going to Sahel fighters. Mining Deal Signals Growth: Rabotec targets a shift from contractor to mine owner, aiming for a fully operational, Rabotec-owned gold mine within five years as its West Africa portfolio nears $1.8bn. Mali Economy & Governance: Mali’s military says it killed 1,850 militants and destroyed 45 terrorist bases in two months, while also escorting fuel convoys across the country. Industry/Trade Angle: A US Consul General appointment in Lagos highlights continued focus on expanding trade, investment, and tech collaboration across the region.

Security & Finance: UN experts say a roughly $50m hostage ransom paid in late 2025 helped fund al-Qaeda-linked militants in Mali, with most money flowing to Sahel fighters and some reaching the group’s wider network. Mali Conflict Update: Reports describe rising attacks on bases, growing cooperation between FLA and JNIM, and continued accusations involving the Russian Africa Corps, alongside claims of major militant losses by Malian forces. Regional Resource Cooperation: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso’s Alliance of Sahel States (AES) agreed on a common mechanism for managing energy, oil and mining, aiming to pool production, transport and storage and push local mining production. Mining & Gold Markets: Ghana’s GANRAP deal highlights how West Africa is tightening state control over gold revenues; meanwhile, Rabotec targets becoming a mine owner/operator within five years as its West Africa portfolio nears $1.8bn. Agriculture & Food Systems: A new AGRA-focused piece argues Mali’s seed progress depends on the full chain from research to field and market, not just improved varieties. Energy Tech (Outside Mali): A Canadian firm reports progress drilling for natural hydrogen at commercial scale, signaling broader interest in new energy sources.

Al-Qaeda Financing in Mali: UN experts say a $50 million ransom paid to free a hostage seized by al Qaeda-linked militants in Mali helped fund advances across West Africa and the group’s wider network. Sahel Security Logistics: A new C4ADS analysis links Russian state-aligned forces in the Central Sahel to at least 75 military or military-linked flights touching Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger between Jan 2025 and Jul 2026. Malian Military Operations: Mali’s armed forces report killing 1,850 militants and destroying 45 terrorist bases over June 1–July 31, citing tighter ground-air coordination. AES Resource Cooperation: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso’s AES agreed to create a common mechanism for energy and mining management, including grid interconnection, fuel corridors and local mining production. Gold Market Pressure: Ghana’s gold boom widens the gap with Mali and Burkina Faso, while Rabotec targets its first wholly-owned gold mine within five years. Mining Policy Watch: Ghana’s GANRAP deal will route 30% of large-scale gold output to the central bank for local processing and reserve accumulation.

Gold Sector Policy: Ghana’s GANRAP deal formalized a plan for large-scale miners to sell 30% of gold output to the central bank and GoldBod for local refining, aiming to boost reserves and cut reliance on borrowing. Mali Mining Expansion: B2Gold secured Mali’s Menankoto exploitation permit for its Fekola Regional push, with pre-stripping and ramp-up expected through 2027 and output growth targeted from 2028. Mining Market Pressure: West Africa’s gold boom is reshaping investment and state control, with Ghana widening its lead over Mali and Burkina Faso as exports hit record levels. Agriculture & Seeds: AGRA highlights how Mali’s seed innovation is moving from research stations to farmers and markets, stressing whole-system support beyond breeding. Bamako Business & Enforcement: A Bamako court kept 10 Chinese nationals detained over an alleged clandestine casino operation, with claims of unlicensed gambling and “protection” raising questions on governance. Security & Operations: Mali’s forces reported major militant losses over two months, citing tighter coordination with air assets and logistics disruption. Community Rights in Mining: In Congo’s mining zones, Indigenous groups are reclaiming land rights through legal training and local media support as companies face consent gaps.

Mali Mining Watch: B2Gold says Mali has granted its Malian subsidiary the Menankoto exploitation permit (issued Aug 7), unlocking Fekola Regional development near the existing Fekola Mine and supporting output growth into 2028+ under Mali’s 2023 Mining Code. West Africa Gold Market: New reporting highlights Ghana’s gold surge—record output and export earnings—widening the gap with Mali and Burkina Faso, while also noting Mali’s and Burkina Faso’s tighter state control as governments seek more mining revenue. Sahel Security & Air Links: A new analysis using flight-tracking data claims Russian state-aligned forces in the Central Sahel relied on at least 75 flights touching Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger between Jan 2025 and Jul 2026, raising questions for regional logistics. Counterterror Brief: The UN warns AQIS may try to exploit Bangladesh to set up cells, noting the threat level intensified in the Sahel and South Asia. Food & Climate Pressure: A resilience-focused piece flags worsening hunger in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger as climate shocks strain farming and food systems.

Gold Market & Mali’s Position: Ghana’s gold boom is widening the gap with Mali and Burkina Faso, with 2025 output near 6 million ounces and gold exports around $20.2bn—driven by stronger artisanal and small-scale production and tighter trade controls. Mali Mining Permits: B2Gold secured Mali’s Menankoto exploitation permit (granted Aug 7) for its Fekola Regional expansion, aiming for ramp-up through 2027 and production above 150,000 ounces annually from 2028. Mining Reforms & Infrastructure Push: Coverage highlights how Mali’s mining reforms are tied to broader infrastructure development, as governments try to balance sovereignty, taxation, and investment stability. Sahel Security & Business Risk: Reports say terror groups are tightening control in Mali and expanding rules on daily life and local commerce, raising operational and logistics risks for industry. Energy & Tech Diplomacy: Burkina Faso’s first Russia–Burkina Faso intergovernmental commission meeting (Sept 16, Moscow) is set to focus on energy, drones, agriculture machinery, and investment—signals for regional supply chains.

Mali Mining: B2Gold secured Mali’s exploitation permit for the Menankoto project on 7 August, a key step for expanding the Fekola Regional gold complex near its existing Fekola operations, with ramp-up expected through 2027 and output targets from 2028 onward. Gold Market Pressure: New reporting puts Ghana’s gold exports at record levels, with gold dominating merchandise exports in 2025 and output rising to about six million ounces—figures that highlight how Mali and the wider region are competing for export earnings. Sahel Security & Rights: Civicus flags Burkina Faso’s civil society crackdown as “repressed,” placing it alongside Mali and Niger, as juntas dissolve parties and suspend or dissolve hundreds of organisations. Regional Energy Diplomacy: Burkina Faso and Russia are preparing a first intergovernmental commission meeting in Moscow on 16 September, with energy and technology—plus drones and agriculture—set to be central to new commercial talks. Industry Leadership: Barrick named Sebastiaan Bock CEO for its “rest of world” portfolio, overseeing gold and copper assets across Africa and beyond, as Mali recovery and production remain in focus.

Mining Permits in Mali: B2Gold says Mali has granted an exploitation permit for its Menankoto project (part of the Fekola Regional complex), issued Aug. 7 after 2025 consultations—unlocking pre-stripping and setting up ramp-up through 2027 and output of 150,000+ ounces a year from 2028. Gold Output Watch: B2Gold also reported stronger-than-expected performance at Fekola in Mali alongside results from Otjikoto and Masbate, with Otjikoto delivering 23,438 ounces in Q2. Corporate Moves in West Africa: Barrick named Sebastiaan Bock CEO for its “rest of world” operations, with Mali’s Loulo-Gounkoto dispute cited as part of the turnaround record. Senegal Gold Deal: Fortuna acquired the Bambadji gold project in Senegal for $200m, consolidating ground along the Senegal-Mali Shear Zone and planning an $8m drilling program starting in Q3. Sahel Security Pressure on Industry: JNIM is imposing new rules and collecting taxes in parts of Mali, while rights groups warn civil society is under unprecedented assault in junta-led states—raising operational and investment risk.

Gold Deal in West Africa: Fortuna Mining has bought Senegal’s Bambadji gold exploration project from Barrick and IAMGOLD for $200m, adding two properties (190 km²) along the Senegal–Mali Shear Zone next to Fortuna’s feasibility-stage Diamba Sud; Fortuna will spend $8m on 51,000m of RC and diamond drilling starting Q3 to test advanced targets within 20 km of the Diamba Sud plant. Mining Policy & Infrastructure Finance (Mali): Mali’s mining reforms are feeding an Energy, Water and Transport Infrastructure Development Fund that can generate 50bn CFA francs a year, with plans to borrow up to 500bn CFA francs for infrastructure. Gold Output & Permits (Mali): Barrick’s Mali recovery is cited alongside its broader restructuring: the miner reported 796,000 ounces in the quarter and named Sebastiaan Bock to lead its “rest of world” operations, with Africa including Loulo-Gounkoto in Mali. Project Pipeline (Mali): Toubani reports high-grade Kobada pre-production infill drilling results and targets an updated resource estimate by end of Q3 2026. Security Pressure on Industry: Reports say Sahel terror groups are tightening control in Mali and expanding rules and taxation on communities, raising risks for operations and logistics.

Mali Mining & Investment: B2Gold secured the Menankoto exploitation permit for its Fekola Regional project, clearing the way for pre-stripping and ramp-up through 2027, with production expected to exceed 150,000 oz annually from 2028; the permit follows Mali’s 2023 Mining Code governance shift. Mali Mining & Exploration: Toubani Resources reported high-grade pre-production infill drilling at Kobada in southern Mali, with multiple strong gold intercepts and an updated MRE targeted for Q3 2026 ahead of mine planning for early 2027. West Africa Gold Deal-Making: Allied Gold said Zijin’s strategic investment closed via a C$416.64m private placement, with proceeds earmarked partly for Mali’s Sadiola expansion. Regional Industry & Infrastructure Finance: Mali’s government is considering borrowing up to 500bn CFA francs (about $880m) using steady mining-linked revenues from its Energy, Water and Transport Infrastructure Development Fund. Sahel Youth & Agriculture-Energy Focus: Niger’s president urged a “responsible generation” across the AES bloc, highlighting security, agriculture, energy and governance as key pillars.

Mining reforms & infrastructure finance: Mali is weighing a plan to borrow up to $880m using revenues from its Energy, Water and Transport Infrastructure Development Fund, which is fed by mining taxes and is expected to generate 50bn CFA francs annually. The government says the fund can be leveraged for major infrastructure while mining reforms also increased state stakes in new projects. Gold project momentum: Toubani Resources reported high-grade Kobada pre-production infill drilling in southern Mali, including multiple strong gold intercepts, as it updates its resource and moves toward mine planning for an expected early-2027 start. Permits for production growth: B2Gold secured the Menankoto exploitation permit for its Fekola Regional area in Mali, supporting near-term expansion plans for the Fekola complex. Gold sector deal watch: While not Mali-focused, Barrick and Newmont settled their Nevada Gold Mines dispute and cleared the way for a North American gold IPO—an important signal for global gold financing that can ripple into West Africa. Security & information space: A new analysis highlights how Mali’s war is being shaped online by “videomen,” raising questions about propaganda, influence, and the risks faced by pro-junta supporters.